Japan Economics Update What next for the Bank of Japan? The election of an LDP-led government would be unlikely to result in the dramatic shift in policy at the Bank of Japan than many now seem to expect. Proposals that threaten the independence of the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s asset purchase program continues to drive growth in the monetary base. There are few signs of this feeding through to stronger credit demand. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese economy plunging into recession Japan’s economy may already be in recession. The sharp fall in Q3 GDP was the first contraction this year but increasingly looks like it will not be the last. We are now expecting a contraction in Q4... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A sharp contraction expected with further falls to come Consensus expectations for Japan’s Q3 growth have been slashed over the last month. However, based on today’s dire numbers the contraction in Q3 could be even worse. What’s more, a further fall in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Heading back into recession The latest figures on Japan’s economy paint an even worse picture than we had anticipated. That the economy contracted in Q3 is now taken as a given. However, chances of a recovery in Q4 are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Still no game changer from Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan’s further loosening of monetary policy today left markets underwhelmed. There is still no real sense that the Bank is getting ahead of the curve rather than playing catch up to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Export slump will drag on Q3 GDP The weakness in the global economy in the third quarter has weighed heavily on Japan’s exporters. Despite the small rise in September, exports fell sharply over the quarter as a whole and will act as... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) A sustained pick-up in bank lending helped support broad money growth in September, although the rate of expansion remains subdued. Household borrowing continues to be the main driver of bank lending... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Worse to come as machinery orders slump The fall in Japan’s machinery orders in September adds to a large body of evidence that the economy contracted in Q3. What’s more, there are increasing signs that the economy will contract again in Q4... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal weaker Q3, no recovery in Q4 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey for September (to be released on Monday) will probably show a deterioration in business conditions in the third quarter, and predictions for the fourth quarter are... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Shrinking exports will act as large drag on Q3 GDP Japan’s goods exports fell further in August as the slowdown in the global economy continued to weigh on trade. Unless exports have rebounded in September, and today’s flash PMIs from China and the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing welcome but will not succeed in capping yen The Bank of Japan surprised markets today with a move that gave the impression of co-ordinated easing by the major global central banks, providing a welcome boost to confidence. However, we had... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Broad money growth remained weak in August but it picked up slightly amid a continued rise in bank lending. Household demand for credit remains firm but businesses are cutting back on borrowing from... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Machinery orders still weak despite pick-up in July The second successive monthly rise in Japanese core machinery orders in July, announced today, does not suggest business capital spending will expand in Q3. The level of orders remains low, firms... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Businesses’ hopes of recovery scaled back The Japanese government’s Business Outlook Survey suggests conditions improved slightly in Q3, with firms expecting further improvements over the next six months. Whilst clearly good news, the pick-up... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
