Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus won’t boost growth much The fiscal stimulus package unveiled today will include much less fresh spending than the headline suggests. And the bulk of the spending will merely offset the unwinding of previous stimulus measures... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields? The IMF has suggested that the Bank of Japan could target shorter bond yields in order to steepen the yield curve and support the profitability of financial institutions. But the benefits to insurance... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Impact of Korean conflict set to remain limited The tensions between Korea and Japan are unlikely to end anytime soon. That suggests that tourist arrivals may fall further and Koreans will continue to boycott Japanese consumer goods. However, Japan... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to remain on hold next year The Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today and reiterated its readiness to ease policy if required. However, the background material to its “re-examination of economic and price developments“... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much damage will the tax hike do? Tomorrow’s tax hike is likely to do less immediate damage to economic growth in Japan than previous increases. But it is still likely to trigger a sizeable fall in GDP in Q4. A rapid rebound next year... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What will guide the BoJ’s “re-examination” of policy? The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will “re-examine economic and price developments” at its meeting at the end of October has been widely interpreted as opening the door to a shift on policy. In... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more eager to ease, but won’t cut rates this year The Bank of Japan’s pledge today “to reexamine economic and price developments” at its next policy meeting has further fuelled speculation of a rate cut in October. Governor Kuroda added in his press... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs The trade deal that the US and Japan have negotiated won’t provide major benefits for Japan’s economy. And while it seems to have reduced the risk that the US imposes any tariffs on Japanese car... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention wouldn’t prevent yen from strengthening While Japan’s government will almost certainly refrain from direct intervention on the foreign exchange markets to stem the recent appreciation of the yen, we can’t rule out that the government’s... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Dovish talk but the usual walk The Bank of Japan projected a dovish tone today, promising further easing if needed. But unlike other major central banks the BoJ still seems a long way from following that up with action. We think it... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy Credit is growing at its strongest rate since the early 1990s. Given that investment growth has started to slow, the spike in private debt seems odd at first glance but much of it appears to have been... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan? Japan’s government will probably expand the number of operating nuclear reactors from nine now to 17 by 2030. While the impact on the trade balance will be tiny, electricity prices may fall... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
