Japan Economics Update Downbeat BoJ unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan seems to be getting a little more worried about the impact of prolonged easing on financial stability. However, the looming sales tax hike and the downgrade to the BoJ’s inflation... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from three more years of Abenomics? Mr Abe will remain Prime Minister for another three years. That means fiscal policy will probably be tightened further, monetary policy will remain loose and policymakers may take some further steps... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer The Bank of Japan today reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for a prolonged period. With the sales tax hike looming and inflation set to remain below target for longer, we think that the Bank will... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the sales tax hike be delayed again? Japan’s government has long argued that the sales tax hike scheduled for next year is needed to improve the fiscal position. With the economy performing extremely well at the moment, Mr Abe has no... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not doing the twist after all The increase in the volume of the Bank of Japan’s bond auctions merely offsets a reduction in their frequency and won’t alter the overall pace of purchases much. The bigger point is that those... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the BoJ doing the twist? Today’s shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal that the 10-year target will be raised anytime soon. Note added post-publication: In this Update, we suggest... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The impact on Japan of a trade war Even if it escalates, the trade dispute between the US and China shouldn’t do significant damage to Japan’s economy. US tariffs on Japanese vehicles would be a greater concern, while a blanket US... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from PM Abe's third term? Mr Abe will almost certainly win the LDP’s leadership elections next month, allowing him to stay Prime Minister for another three years. While fiscal policy will probably be tightened a little further... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals no change for a long time to come The Bank of Japan made some technical adjustments to its policy framework today. But its key message, which it emphasised with the introduction of explicit forward guidance, was that the main policy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much longer can QQE remain in place? The BoJ has been able to drastically slow the pace of its acquisition of Japanese Government Bonds since it adopted a 0% yield target, which should quells doubts about the policy’s long-run viability... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ lower its inflation target? The Bank of Japan’s admission that inflation won’t reach its 2% target anytime soon has generated speculation that the target will be lowered at the meeting later this month. By contrast, we believe... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in second-hand sales? Despite rapid growth, sales of second-hand goods remain too low to constitute a major threat to retailers. Their rising popularity reflects the increased convenience of electronic platforms rather... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update US auto tariffs would trigger retaliation from Japan The imposition of high tariffs on car imports that the US is considering would have a palpable impact on economic activity in Japan. This may be another empty threat by the Trump administration, but... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
