Japan Economics Update Banking system should withstand corona shock Regional banks in Japan will face mounting loan losses due to the virus outbreak. But as their linkages with other financial institutions are small, this won’t precipitate a financial crisis. 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Only modest fiscal support as lockdowns loom The government today laid the groundwork for lockdowns in prefectures that generate nearly half of Japan’s economic output. The accompanying fiscal package has some impressive headline numbers... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a lockdown mean for Japan’s economy? Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is mulling a lockdown for the capital in response to a rise in coronavirus cases. Taking into account the composition of Tokyo’s economy, we estimate that a lockdown in the... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Counting the cost of Olympic postponement With the global coronavirus pandemic set to last for months, it now looks almost certain that this summer’s Tokyo Olympics will be postponed. The impact on the economy this year of such a move should... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still likely to cut interest rates The measures announced by the Bank of Japan today lack teeth and we still expect policymakers to cut the short-term policy rate over the coming weeks. 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention won’t prevent yen from strengthening We suspect that Japan’s government won’t intervene in the foreign exchange market until the yen hits 90 against the dollar. The key point is that foreign exchange intervention probably won’t prevent... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How vulnerable is Japan to supply chain disruptions? Manufacturers in Japan are on the whole less dependent on imported components than those in other major rich economies and so are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruption. But there’s a... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How will the BoJ respond to the coronavirus? We suspect that the BoJ’s response to the coronavirus will mostly consist of liquidity provision to banks and a renewed acceleration of its ETF purchases. We are not forecasting a cut in the Bank’s... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Olympic cancellation wouldn’t be an economic shock With the number of confirmed infections of the new coronavirus rising in Japan, cancellation or postponement of this year’s Tokyo Olympics is becoming a possibility worth considering. The key point in... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year A slump in tourist arrivals has been the initial channel through which the virus outbreak in China has harmed Japan’s economy and will most likely knock around 0.4%-pts off GDP growth in Q1. As long... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ introduce a digital currency? Cash is still widely used in Japan and amid concerns about the impact on financial stability, a central bank digital currency for retail transactions is unlikely to be introduced anytime soon. There’s... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Capacity shortages to ease, but not enough for rate cut The Bank of Japan shocked no one in leaving its major policy settings unchanged today. And with obstacles to further easing high, the slight fall in capacity shortages we are expecting this year won’t... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on prolonged hold The Bank of Japan didn’t surprise anyone by keeping interest rates unchanged today and we think it will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
