Japan Economics Update Should the government reappoint Mr Kuroda? While inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, Governor Kuroda deserves credit for a number of radical policy changes. His reappointment would therefore underline the government’s... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Private sector debt is growing at the fastest pace on record as corporate debt issuance has surged. As a result, both household and corporate debt are now rising again relative to output. 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update EU trade deal could boost productivity somewhat The impact of the proposed tariff cuts in the EU/Japan free trade agreement should not be overstated. But the deal will also reduce non-tariff barriers and barriers to foreign direct investment which... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update LDP will have to respond to crushing defeat in Tokyo While the ruling LDP’s severe defeat in local elections in Tokyo is not necessarily a bellwether to developments at the national level, we think that the government may respond with a larger... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten any time soon The Bank of Japan today turned more upbeat in its assessment of economic conditions, but Governor Kuroda remained cautious on the prospect of hitting the inflation target. With inflation set to... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank profits have continued to shrink as lenders’ net interest margins have declined. However, non-financial firms are benefitting from rock-bottom borrowing costs and corporate bankruptcies remain... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will energy inflation peak? We expect energy inflation to peak next quarter and then drop back, providing another challenge to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reach a 2% inflation target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Much greater capacity shortages needed to lift inflation Japan is on the longest streak of growth in more than a decade. But the lesson of the last growth spurt is that capacity shortages would have to intensify much further to generate major price... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Credit growth is the strongest it has been in years but continues to fall short of growth in bank deposits. Meanwhile, the volume of external lending dipped slightly in Q4 but remains close to a... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ again follow the Fed and the ECB? There is less evidence of spare capacity in Japan’s economy than in the euro-zone which might suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates before the ECB. However, the Bank has pledged to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the primary budget be in surplus in 2020? Japan’s budget deficit has fallen sharply in recent years but improvements are now likely to slow, with the result that the government will struggle to achieve its target of a primary budget surplus... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan remains too upbeat about inflation The BoJ upgraded its assessment of the economy at today’s meeting but lowered its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. We think that the Bank remains too optimistic about inflation and... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan and the US sign a free trade agreement? High-level discussions with the US today have revived talk in Japan of a bilateral trade deal that could in principle generate sizeable productivity gains for Japan and make up for the US abandoning... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending is rising at the fastest pace since 2009, led by non-manufacturing firms. A combination of record-low bank lending rates and extremely loose bank lending attitudes has fuelled the credit... 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does QQE expose the Bank of Japan to large losses? A sharp rise in interest rates could result in large losses for the Bank of Japan if it were ever to sell its huge stock of government bonds. But the Bank is keeping a lid on bond yields and will... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
