Japan Economics Update A mini-bubble is building in Japan’s property market Froth has returned to Japan’s housing market, especially in urban areas where prices are now back to levels seen just before the collapse of the property bubble in the early nineties. A price... 10th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the conflict with Korea harm the economy? We suspect that the current tensions between Korea and Japan will subside after the Upper House elections. Even if Korean consumers decided to boycott Japanese products, the impact on Japan’s economy... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticking to its guns The Bank of Japan is showing no signs of shifting to a more dovish stance, despite the impending sales tax hike and moves towards easing by the Fed (and the ECB). As long as there is no sharp downturn... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the trade war impacting Japanese FDI? While there is growing anecdotal evidence of some Japanese firms shifting production of US-bound goods from China to Southeast Asia, the large size of China’s domestic market means that China will... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Implications of the escalating trade war The impact of the renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and China on Japan’s economy should be small even allowing for second-round effects on financial markets and confidence. A bigger... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose for the foreseeable future The Bank of Japan made it very clear that it will keep policy settings loose for at least another year. And while we expect GDP growth and inflation to disappoint, we think that concerns about the... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Twenty years of ZIRP, and counting Just over two decades after it first cut rates to zero, the Bank of Japan today left its policy settings unchanged and reiterated that the ultra-loose stance will be maintained for the foreseeable... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The next downturn: lessons from Japan Faced with a severe downturn, developed economies would exhaust their conventional monetary policy tools quickly. At first sight, Japan’s experience suggests that even the bold use of unconventional... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan.) Economic growth is set to slow after October’s sales tax hike while inflation will remain well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. But with high hurdles to additional policy easing, we think that the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec.) The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today and Governor Kuroda’s dovish comments suggest that policy tightening remains a long way off. 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The yen’s days as a safe haven are probably not over While doubts have been raised over whether the Japanese yen remains a safe haven in light of its poor performance in the summer, we think that the currency will retain this status for the foreseeable... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s high public debt not a reassuring example for others Even though Japan’s “true” level of government debt is not as high as the commonly-watched gross measure suggests, it is still far higher than elsewhere. The ease with which Japan nonetheless copes... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stock market falls won’t drag on spending Japan’s stock market has already fallen by 11% since its recent peak in early October, and we expect further declines in 2019 as equity prices tumble in the US and the yen strengthens. But this won’t... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plans to offset sales tax hike won’t stop spending slump The measures under consideration to offset the damage from next year’s sales tax hike may help to soften the blow if big enough. But they are unlikely to prevent a fall in domestic demand. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging phone charges another headwind for BoJ The steep cut to mobile phone charges announced by Japan’s largest wireless operator last week means that consumer price inflation may average only 1.0% next year rather than the 1.2% we had been... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
