Japan Economics Update New Bank of Japan Governor unlikely to lift rates The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and while a new Prime Minister could appoint a more hawkish BoJ Governor, we expect the Bank to keep interest rates unchanged for years. 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ishiba could clear path for Kono to become PM Kono Taro is emerging as the favourite to succeed Mr Suga as PM. While Kishida and Takaichi are viewed as safer hands by LDP party elders, the outspoken Kono’s popularity with the public gives him the... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Consumer spending to fall across Q3 The latest high-frequency data point to the relentless surge in new coronavirus cases starting to weigh heavily on consumer activity this month. And with full-blown emergency declarations to be... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan? With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Short-lived spike in underlying inflation on the cards The surge in input prices caused by supply shortages is starting to show signs of filtering through into higher output prices. Combined with upwards pressure on services inflation from a “vaccine... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank shifting focus away from emergency response The Bank of Japan today unveiled the details of its green lending facility, underlining that its focus is now moving away from addressing the pandemic towards longer-term structural issues. 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update GDP to rebound in Q3 despite restrictions in Tokyo While new infections in Tokyo have picked up, the fourth state of emergency in the capital is partly a political move designed to placate fears that the Tokyo Olympics will trigger yet another virus... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Four key takeaways from Suga’s first big-boned policy PM Suga unveiled his administration’s first mid- to long-term growth strategy – known as the “big-boned policy” – on Friday. While most themes have been carried over from the Abe administration, PM... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank to broaden its gaze to encompass climate change While the Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged today and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, it extended the deadline for applications to its emergency lending... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Producer price jump unlikely to boost inflation much Producer prices are rising the most in years, but this largely reflects global supply shortages that should abate as vaccines are rolled out. We expect consumer price inflation to average a muted 0.6%... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage growth set to remain contained The recent strength in Japan’s wage data largely reflects a compositional shift, as more lower-paid workers have dropped out of the workforce over the past year. With vacancies still far below pre... 10th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can banks withstand rising corporate defaults? The pandemic has lifted the ratio of corporate debt to GDP to the highest level since the late-1990s and the Bank of Japan now fears that defaults could rise sharply in struggling sectors. However... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kuroda’s term to end with inflation still below target The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And by predicting inflation well below its 2% target all the way to FY2023, the Bank signalled that Governor Kuroda won’t... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fourth virus wave to slow recovery The fourth virus wave has so far been largely concentrated in Osaka and a state of emergency declaration in that prefecture alone would not prevent national output from rebounding in Q2. However, as... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ rearranges furniture to prepare for prolonged hold The Bank of Japan’s policy review today contained various nudges to policy levers but ultimately marked neither a tightening nor an easing of policy. Governor Kuroda was keen to emphasise in the press... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why Japan isn’t suffering supply disruptions Japan’s manufacturers are not suffering from the severe supply shortages that are plaguing firms in other advanced economies. This reflects lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and a... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
