India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Protests could be a mixed blessing for economy The direct economic impact of the protests that began in opposition to the citizenship amendment bill is likely to be small. However, the protests have increased the chances of a larger fiscal... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI leaves rates unchanged, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged for the first time this year, following five successive rate cuts. Nevertheless, the MPC has left the door open for further easing in the... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Banking sector requires governance reform We couldn’t agree more with recent comments from RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das that much better governance is needed to improve the long-term health of the banking sector. The problem stems in large... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to remain small The monthly goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in October and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit will stay in check India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have jumped in September on the back of a surge in onion prices. But that’ll hardly bring tears to the eyes of the RBI, as it is likely to have stayed... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI prolongs easing cycle The Reserve Bank reverted back to a 25bp rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing in the near term. But we are firmly non-consensus in expecting modest rate hikes by the end of... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit narrowed a touch in the four quarters to Q2 and looks unlikely to balloon any time soon as imports of key commodities remain in check. Meanwhile, FDI inflows edged up... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Four key points as Sitharaman loosens the purse strings Fiscal loosening measures announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today are likely to provide a small boost to economic growth over the coming quarters, but significantly increase the chances... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
