India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery a long way off Industrial output slumped in March and more timely evidence from the manufacturing PMI, electricity consumption and vehicle production strongly suggest that the sector has come to a near standstill in... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should be of no concern to policymakers Given growing worries about public health and the devastating economic impact of India’s lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown will worsen banking sector strains The government’s reluctance to provide significant financial support for firms and households during lockdown means that non-performing loans are likely to surge. One legacy of the coronavirus in... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up virus response, further loosening likely The RBI has taken further steps to help banks and borrowers weather the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown extension will require huge fiscal support PM Modi’s decision to extend the nationwide lockdown that was due to end today comes as no major surprise given that coronavirus cases in India continue to surge. With many households having no... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial activity has collapsed Timely indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and air quality strongly suggest that industrial activity has fallen off a cliff since the nationwide lockdown began on 25th March. These... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Collapse in demand and oil prices to anchor inflation Given the concerns about public health and the impact of the national lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though, the likelihood... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry needs to throw caution to the wind The Finance Ministry’s response to the coronavirus so far has been tepid and, unless it steps up, it risks turning the public health crisis into a humanitarian and banking crisis. We assume it will do... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up emphatically The RBI has emphatically stepped up its response to the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak with another emergency announcement today. It has also left the door wide... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Containment measures put onus on finance ministry The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India is now rising sharply and, in response, most states have implemented full or partial lockdowns. With many households likely to have very low savings... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus: can India learn lessons from the NIEs? Prime Minister Modi’s address this evening seemed intended mainly to raise awareness of the threat posed by the coronavirus in India. With case numbers still low, the government has taken few measures... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
