India Economics Update RBI keeps some ammunition in the locker The RBI announced some measures to boost bank liquidity in a hastily-arranged press conference today but disappointed the bond market by not lowering policy rates. With the coronavirus a growing... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External position secure amid market turbulence India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a one-year low in February and the collapse in oil prices since then should push the deficit even lower in the months ahead. As such, we now expect the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Oil price collapse a positive amid market rout The plunge in oil prices over the past week means there’s a good chance that India records a rare current account surplus over the coming quarters. This should help to ensure that the rout in local... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia at high risk of wide-scale virus outbreak The rising number of new coronavirus infections in Asia beyond China has largely been confined to Korea and Japan. But poor healthcare provision, the density of population and high levels of internal... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Yes Bank failure adds to mounting downside risks Though the RBI’s takeover of Yes Bank is intended to reduce the direct threat posed by the failing bank to India’s financial stability, the measures that have been implemented could exacerbate... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus to weigh on economic recovery The rapid global spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.3%, from 5.7% previously. And there is now a high chance that the RBI follows the lead... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Making sense of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s GDP data suggest that the recent slowdown started earlier, and problems in the shadow banking sector have had a more acute impact on the economy, than previously thought. But... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump may have bottomed out A slump in investment has been the key factor behind the sharp economic slowdown over the past year. A spectacular rebound is not on the cards but investment should recover gradually over the coming... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no major concern India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a seven-month high in January, but we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall from ballooning to... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in January, in large part due to a continued increase in food inflation. Further ahead, food inflation is likely to ease, but we expect... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales target lacks credibility The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target in the budget for FY20/21 hinge on the smooth sale of large stakes in one of India’s worst-performing banks and a politically-important... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
