India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has a little further to run The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept rates on hold today, but continued to flag several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and maintained the hawkish description of... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions underline recent strength The revised GDP data for the past decade that have just been released suggest that recent growth has been further above India’s sustainable rate than previously thought. This underlines why the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to narrow India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in October but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices falling and the rupee having weakened in trade... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in October following a renewed drop in food inflation. This may prove enough to keep the RBI on the side-lines in its meeting next month. But with core... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: two years on The benefits of the government’s demonetisation policy should be evident by now, two years after the shock announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being withdrawn. But the promised... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with a number of moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility for the central bank... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest tightening cycle not over yet The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting show that, despite keeping rates on hold, the MPC continues to place great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will continue to moderate The narrowing in India’s merchandise trade deficit in September should help to temper some of the concerns that have recently been building over the external position. And looking ahead, we think that... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in September, in large part because the recent sharp fall in food inflation appears to have reversed. More important from the policy perspective, core... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pauses, but isn’t done yet The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept rates on hold today, but flagged several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and explicitly shifted to a more hawkish... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in August, in large part due to another fall in food inflation. But more important from the policy perspective, core inflation is likely to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers comfortable with weaker rupee The rupee’s slide against the US dollar this year has been met with frenzied commentary in some quarters. But policymakers look comfortable with the weaker rupee. In particular, the RBI appears to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the Kerala floods The flooding in Kerala is among the worst in recent memory, and has already had a devastating human cost. But from an economic perspective at least, the damage should be manageable. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
