India Economics Update FDI measures to have limited success Historically, a low level of foreign investment has been one factor constraining the productive potential of India’s economy. The Modi government has made some progress in addressing this. But FDI... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of rising oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again We think that consumer price inflation rose again in December, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build, which could prompt the Reserve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further After reaching a three-year high in October, India’s trade deficit narrowed a touch in November. The shortfall is likely to narrow further over the coming months. Exports should continue to rebound... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from markets in 2018 Indian financial markets have had a mixed year in 2017. Equities have surged and the rupee has strengthened a touch, but bonds have sold off. Looking ahead to 2018, we think that equities are unlikely... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in inflation has further to run We think that consumer price inflation rose again in November, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. With core price pressures also continuing to build, the Reserve Bank may have to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening The RBI kept its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today, defying calls from prominent members of the government for further rate cuts. In fact, with core price pressures building, we think the debate may... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to develop corporate bond market The development of a corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets shrug off ratings upgrade Indian markets appear to have taken last week’s ratings upgrade from Moody’s in their stride, with the rupee recording only very small gains against the US dollar and the 10-year bond yield staying... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moody’s highlights positives, overlooks concerns Moody’s has highlighted a number of genuine positive recent developments in India as justifications for a ratings upgrade – though its inclusion of demonetisation among them should raise some eyebrows... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen further India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in October, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while commodity... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation will resume accelerating soon We think that consumer price inflation held steady in October as a slight rise in food inflation was offset by a drop in fuel inflation. But with core price pressures building, inflation is likely to... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: one year on A year after the Indian government’s surprise announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being cancelled, it is clear that the negative impact on incomes and output was substantial –... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
