India Economics Update GST likely to cause some near-term disruption The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was finally rolled out in India over the weekend, over a decade after its conception. There are bound to be some teething problems in the coming weeks and months, but... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Overhauling financial year would bring little economic benefit Shifting the start of India’s financial year from April to January, as the government appears to be considering, would align it with the norm in most other countries and therefore make life easier for... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State profligacy is undermining centre’s gains Discussions on the health of India’s public finances often focus exclusively on the national level, where relatively good progress has been made reining in the budget deficit in recent years. Less... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities rise to fresh record highs The surge in Indian equities over the past few months has continued in June, with the benchmark Sensex stock index closing at a fresh all-time high on the 19th. The rally reflects in part a broader... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil imports to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in two and a half years in May, but we don’t think this is much of a concern. With imports of key commodities such as oil likely to stay in... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q1, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain strong. Given this, the... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Loan waivers are setting a dangerous precedent The announcement over the weekend of a debt write-off for farmers in Maharashtra extends the precedent set in Uttar Pradesh in April. Other states may now follow, at a significant fiscal cost. 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government pressure risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans face hurdles Renewed talk of the government ramping up its privatisation drive is welcome, but its aim of raising INR725bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies this year still looks unrealistic. In... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation close to bottoming out Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in May due in large part to another drop in food inflation, and we have nudged down our full-year inflation forecast in response to the weakness in the... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unmoved by weakness of GDP and inflation data The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep policy unchanged today despite the weakness of the latest inflation and GDP data. However, the less hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the export recovery continue? The recovery in India’s exports over the past few months is due in large part (and somewhat surprisingly) to a rise in global oil prices as well as the strength of the rupee, which has boosted... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex continues to surge Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting a fresh all-time high in mid-May. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New measures unlikely to revive banking sector New powers granted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could in theory speed up resolution of cases of stressed assets that have burdened the banking sector in recent years. But the measures are likely... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Questions still hang over accuracy of IP data The revisions and rebasing of India’s wholesale price and industrial production data align them with other indicators used in India and make them more useful for international comparisons. But while... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
