Global Markets Update Is there more upside for equities in Japan than in the euro-zone? Despite the strong performance of equities in the euro-zone so far this year, we think there is more upside for those in Japan. Our end-2015 forecast for the DAX is 11,000, which is barely above its... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE keep the euro under pressure? While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has foreign demand contributed to the rally in US Treasuries? One development that may have contributed to the rally in US Treasuries, and which seems likely to persist, is demand from overseas in response to rock-bottom bond yields elsewhere in the developed... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the Fed driven down the term premium on US Treasuries? We think the Fed has been instrumental in the collapse of term premiums on long-dated Treasuries and that the effect of its actions will not be unwound soon. If we are right, and other depressing... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of the SNB's change in policy The SNB’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling of 1.20 francs per euro sent shockwaves through the financial markets today. This Update provides some of our initial reactions. 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would euro-zone equities benefit from QE? The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to announce a quantitative easing (QE) programme at its next policy meeting. However, we doubt that it would provide a large boost to euro-zone equities. The... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US government bonds? We still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise this year from its current level of around 1.9% as the Fed begins to tighten policy, but have decided to lower our end-2015 forecast significantly... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will capital flows put further pressure on the euro? As investors’ confidence in the euro-zone has waned, overall inflows of portfolio capital from abroad have slowed. We suspect this trend may continue, undermining the euro further in the process. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Russian ruble “extremely undervalued”? We are not convinced by the Russian finance ministry’s claim on Wednesday morning that the ruble is “extremely undervalued”. After all, Russia has undergone an enormous deterioration in its terms of... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will frontier market equities continue to underperform? The sharp drop in oil prices has played a major role in the recent poor performance of the MSCI Frontier Markets (FM) Index, in which a small number of oil exporting countries have large weightings... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would prolonged deflation affect euro-zone equities? It is tempting to think that a prolonged period of mild deflation in the euro-zone would be terrible news for equities. After all, Japan’s stock market generally fared poorly for much of the time... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
