Global Markets Update Markets still under-pricing “Grexit” risks The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The dollar and the US stock market – a historical perspective The performance of the US stock market has varied significantly during the four periods in which the dollar has strengthened considerably since it became a free-floating currency in the early 1970s... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors regain their appetite for EM assets In February, there was a net flow into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging markets for the month since September. In particular, funds dedicated to investing in equities in Emerging... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the turn in the dollar The last few days have seen a sharp reversal in the tone of commentary on the dollar: speculation about a surge to parity against the euro has been replaced by talk that the broad-based rally is over... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the Fed’s new projections Downward revisions to FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate have triggered a significant rally in Treasuries and taken some heat out of the dollar. But our expectation is that the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone sovereign credit spreads grind even lower? The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for India’s financial markets? Despite the prospect of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), we forecast that the country’s stock market will end this year barely any higher than it is now. On a more... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's really behind negative bond yields? The fact that short-dated bond yields are negative in many European countries is often attributed to the prospect of substantial purchases of euro-zone government debt by the ECB under the policy of... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the US stock market? The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will sterling’s renewed strength be maintained? Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing risk of Greek exit under-priced in global markets Although the latest wranglings over Greece’s short-term financing needs have so far elicited little response from markets outside Greece, this calm may not last. As the German rebuff of Greece’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has investors’ appetite for EM government bonds waned? The credit spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has increased sharply since the middle of 2014. However, this reflects specific concerns... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have Basel III regulations fuelled the rally in US Treasuries? Basel III regulations appear to have increased US banks’ demand for Treasuries and helped to depress yields at the short end of the curve. What’s more, the continued phasing in of the regulations... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has “safe-haven” demand driven US Treasury yields down? While demand for US Treasuries as a “safe haven” may have increased over the past year, we doubt this has contributed significantly to the sharp decline in their yields. Other factors that are also... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
