Global Markets Update Is this really the start of a bear market in Bunds? Although the yields of German Bunds have risen significantly since late-April, we doubt they will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed dollar strength has further to go Diverging prospects for economic growth and monetary policy point to additional gains for the dollar this year, especially against the euro and the yen. The real possibility that Greece will be the... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall to 140 against the US dollar The yen’s tentative break of 120 against the dollar in the past week has refocused attention on the currency pair after several months of stability. We continue to expect the yen to weaken... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which currencies are fundamentally misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) soon. These are likely to suggest that... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a rise in Treasury yields a threat to the US stock market? We are sceptical that a further sell-off in Treasuries would drive the US stock market down, as some are suggesting. Although we forecast that the 10-year US government bond yield will continue to... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US and euro-zone government bonds? While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s been driving up the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for UK Gilts? We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year Gilt yield in recognition of the fact that monetary policy in the UK is likely to be tightened even more gradually than we had previously anticipated... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will gilts fare following the UK election? Historically, the yield of 10-year gilts has sometimes moved immediately upon a surprise election result and over the next six months in response to sweeping reforms of a newly elected government... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE provide more fuel for euro-zone bonds? While the anticipation and launch of looser unconventional monetary policy in the euro-zone appears to have depressed the yields of bonds issued by the region’s more troubled governments, the boost... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
