Global Markets Update Six glimmers of light Today has obviously been an awful day in the markets, particularly for equities and industrial commodities. But stepping back from the headlines, six more positive points are worth stressing. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not a re-run of previous EM crises An 8.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index has sent shockwaves through EM equity markets, but we continue to think that there are few parallels between what is happening now and previous crises... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How at risk are equities in Japan to events in emerging Asia? Although the yen has stayed weak against the US dollar, it has appreciated in trade-weighted terms in response to a slump in some emerging Asian currencies. Still, the yen’s real effective exchange... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not the Asian Financial Crisis MK2 The recent depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the dollar has left both currencies at levels not seen since 1998, but suggestions that this signals a re-run of the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of EM market performance in previous RMB falls There have only been three previous occasions in the last decade when the renminbi has depreciated to any meaningful extent against the dollar. On two of those occasions the performance of EM markets... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM markets to rebound once fears about China ease Financial markets in South Korea, Malaysia and commodity-producing EMs will probably continue to suffer the biggest losses if the renminbi depreciates further against the dollar. But we doubt that the... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are US Treasuries to banks’ waning demand? One factor that purportedly prevented US government bond yields from rising in 2014 was banks’ increased appetite for Treasuries, which has waned this year. While other factors could continue to exert... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi “devaluation” may not be such a big deal Today’s reduction in the daily reference rate for the renminbi has been widely interpreted as the first of many moves whose main purpose is to regain competiveness by devaluing the Chinese currency... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Copper prices could eventually boost equities in Chile and Peru Our bullish view on copper prices suggests that stock markets in Chile and Peru could outperform over the medium-term, but persistently low oil prices look set to be an unwanted headwind for equities... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Ratings downgrade wouldn’t cause Brazilian bond yields to spike Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal position had already caused foreign currency bond yields to rise by 100bp this year and we do not expect any ratings downgrades in the coming weeks to have much of an... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy Once the US FOMC has begun to raise its target for the federal funds rate, it is widely expected that subsequent increases will be very gradual, as the rate is only slowly returned to a more “normal”... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
