Global Markets Update Better second half in store for the Nikkei There are good reasons to be cautious on the near-term prospects for the Nikkei, but we expect equities in Japan to outperform those in other major developed markets over the rest of the year. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What is the outlook for US corporate bond spreads? At around 170bp, the spread over Treasuries of US corporate bonds with a 7-10 year maturity and BBB rating is now less than its average of the last quarter of a century and the smallest since before... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Aussie dollar heading down under? The Australian dollar has been one of this year’s best performing major currencies. But given the outlook for monetary policy and the prices of some of Australia’s major exports, we think that it will... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do capital flows explain the euro's strength? Balance of payments data suggest that capital inflows from abroad may have helped to push up the value of the euro. But if the current account surplus shrinks and the appetite for euro-zone financial... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will the selling end? Net selling of emerging market assets by global ETFs and mutual funds was almost as heavy in February as it was in January according to EPFR Global. The crisis in Ukraine, growing concerns about the... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro's strength against the US dollar unlikely to last The euro has been on an upward trend against the US dollar for nearly two years, largely reflecting improving sentiment towards the euro-zone economy and reduced fears of break-up. But the relative... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US rate expectations have further to rise The adverse market reaction to the slightly more hawkish tone of comments from the Fed yesterday looks justified to us. Indeed, market expectations for US interest rates are likely to rise further... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The kiwi can fly! New Zealand dollar to remain high It is tempting to conclude that the New Zealand dollar is set to fall sharply. After all, on several measures, it is the most overvalued of the G10 currencies. But with the key driver behind the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets complacent about Ukraine? Given the twin threats from worries about a “hard landing” in China and the crisis in Ukraine, it is perhaps surprising that global equities have not already fallen more than they have. We think that... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Winners and losers from safe-haven demand The continued recovery in the price of gold confirms that it has retained its safe-haven status despite the slump in the first half of last year. We expect further gains. Less positively, yen strength... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the relative prospects for euro-zone and US bonds? The risks of deflation in the euro-zone, particularly in light of the ECB’s continued inaction last Thursday, should keep the yields on ten-year core euro-zone government bonds well below those on US... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the UK MPC's new forward guidance working? On the face of it, “phase two” of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) forward guidance appears to have been a success. After all, yields have fallen since it was introduced. But upon closer... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
