Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP breakdown provides glimmer of hope The breakdown of Q1 GDP across Emerging Europe showed that the region’s economy is probably in a slightly better shape than the (weak) headline growth figures would suggest. Accordingly, we think that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to stay below 3% until 2015 Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka gave few hints about the likelihood of further easing. We think it’s most likely that interest rates will be left on hold at 2.75% over... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey's external risks While Turkish asset prices have regained some of their lost ground today, the outbreak of protests over the past few days has re-focused attention on the country’s economic vulnerabilities. In... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sluggish Polish growth to prompt further policy easing The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data confirmed that domestic demand remained extremely weak and it looks like there has been little improvement in April. Combined with below-target inflation, we think... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s scope to ease policy limited by FX debt The weakness of Hungary’s economy, coupled with below-target inflation, means that further interest rate cuts are likely over the next couple of months. However, we think the country’s high level of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia makes a weak start to Q2 April’s activity data will dent any remaining hopes for a quick rebound in Russian growth following the slump in Q1. As a result, the Central Bank is likely to come under yet further pressure to cut... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: thoughts turn to fiscal stimulus The continued weakness of Russia’s economy has led to questions about what policymakers can do to stimulate growth and, with the central bank reluctant to loosen monetary policy, there is a growing... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging easing The pace at which parent banks in Western Europe have scaled back funding for subsidiaries in Eastern Europe has slowed further since the start of the year. Nonetheless, credit conditions in much of... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q1 to fuel stimulus debate Russia’s Q1 GDP data were not as bad as feared, but growth still slumped to its weakest pace since 2009. This will fuel the ongoing debate about the need for economic stimulus. But with the slowdown... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey upgraded, but external vulnerabilities persist Turkey’s second investment grade rating awarded last night was long-anticipated and is unlikely to have much impact on bond yields. In fact, Turkey’s large external financing risks mean that it is one... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further Turkish rate cut in the pipeline We think the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will follow up today’s 50bp cut in interest rates with a further 25bp cut over the coming months. But policymakers may also continue to offset the impact of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rate cuts to come soon While central banks across much of the emerging world are cutting interest rates, high inflation prevented the Central Bank of Russia from doing so today, in spite of the weakness of the economy... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
