Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sluggish Polish growth to prompt further policy easing The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data confirmed that domestic demand remained extremely weak and it looks like there has been little improvement in April. Combined with below-target inflation, we think... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s scope to ease policy limited by FX debt The weakness of Hungary’s economy, coupled with below-target inflation, means that further interest rate cuts are likely over the next couple of months. However, we think the country’s high level of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia makes a weak start to Q2 April’s activity data will dent any remaining hopes for a quick rebound in Russian growth following the slump in Q1. As a result, the Central Bank is likely to come under yet further pressure to cut... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: thoughts turn to fiscal stimulus The continued weakness of Russia’s economy has led to questions about what policymakers can do to stimulate growth and, with the central bank reluctant to loosen monetary policy, there is a growing... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging easing The pace at which parent banks in Western Europe have scaled back funding for subsidiaries in Eastern Europe has slowed further since the start of the year. Nonetheless, credit conditions in much of... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q1 to fuel stimulus debate Russia’s Q1 GDP data were not as bad as feared, but growth still slumped to its weakest pace since 2009. This will fuel the ongoing debate about the need for economic stimulus. But with the slowdown... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey upgraded, but external vulnerabilities persist Turkey’s second investment grade rating awarded last night was long-anticipated and is unlikely to have much impact on bond yields. In fact, Turkey’s large external financing risks mean that it is one... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further Turkish rate cut in the pipeline We think the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will follow up today’s 50bp cut in interest rates with a further 25bp cut over the coming months. But policymakers may also continue to offset the impact of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rate cuts to come soon While central banks across much of the emerging world are cutting interest rates, high inflation prevented the Central Bank of Russia from doing so today, in spite of the weakness of the economy... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth stabilising, but uneven performance The raft of preliminary Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe, released today and yesterday, suggests that, while the slowdown at the end of last year has bottomed out, growth is sluggish... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weakness of Polish economy to bolster calls for rate cuts Today’s preliminary estimate of Polish GDP showed that the economy was in a weaker state at the start of the year than many had anticipated. Admittedly, there is a fair amount of uncertainty about... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown bottoms out in Q1 A raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks is likely to show that growth stabilised in most of Emerging Europe. Russia is the notable exception. Here, the slowdown seems to have... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish equities continue to outperform Turkish equities have been the region’s star performer once again over the past month amid growing optimism about the economic recovery, the rising prospect that a second ratings agency will assign... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Polish rates looks likely Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka was guarded in his comments about whether further policy easing is on the cards. But with inflation likely to fall further below the Bank... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
