Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish banks more exposed to external shock than in 2008 In spite of the rapid build up of Turkish banks’ foreign currency assets held at the central bank, we think the country’s banking sector is still more vulnerable to an external shock now than it was... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania signals rate cuts Romanian policymakers provided pretty clear signs this afternoon that they plan to start easing policy. They were ambiguous on the timing, but we think that interest rate cuts could come once... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak industry and low inflation to trigger Polish rate cut April’s PMIs show signs of a renewed downturn in manufacturing in Central Europe. And tempting as it is to blame the weakness of German industry, it looks like domestic factors are playing a role too... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: first tweaks to the fiscal rule The decision by Russia’s Finance Ministry to increase the oil price forecast used in the budget appears to be an effort to paper over shortfalls in non-oil revenues, including from lower-than-expected... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Struggling Polish economy to trigger further rate cut The weakness of the latest Polish inflation and activity data suggests that the central bank could resume its easing cycle. Admittedly, the MPC appears divided on whether further easing is needed. But... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation outlook remains subdued Emerging Market (EM) inflation fell back in March as temporary distortions related to the Chinese New Year dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, with underlying price pressures... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint concerns limit scope for aggressive easing in Hungary Falling inflation and an economy struggling to escape from recession mean that further interest rate cuts are likely in Hungary. But we remain of the view that currency concerns will prevent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the implications of oil's fall to below $100pb The drop in oil prices over the past month will limit the room for fiscal stimulus in response to the slump in Russia’s economy since the turn of the year and is another reason to expect the recovery... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has driven Russia's slowdown? The raft of Russian activity data for March, due to be released this week, is likely to show a slight improvement from February. But growth in Q1 is still set to be much weaker than at the end of last... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation to trigger further Polish rate cut The weakness of the latest inflation data across Central Europe should allow further loosening of monetary policy, even in Poland, where we have now pencilled in a 25bp rate cut later this year. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's phoney rate cut We expect the Central Bank of Turkey to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate for the first time in four months at next week’s MPC meeting. But the myriad of different tools now deployed by the Bank... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank takes more dovish stance The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine fails to agree on an IMF deal, again The failure of the authorities to agree on a new IMF programme leaves Ukraine extremely exposed if financial market tensions flare up again. Meanwhile, the government has recently unveiled its... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy easing likely to focus on weaker ruble Pressure is mounting on Russian policymakers to act to stimulate the slowing economy. But unlike in 2008-09, there is little room for a large-scale fiscal stimulus. And substantial cuts in interest... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's "Funding for Growth" scheme lacks punch The “Funding for Growth” scheme announced by the National Bank of Hungary is not quite as radical as it could have been. This helps to explain the relatively muted reaction in the financial markets... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
