Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cuts to come in Romania The surprise decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to accelerate the pace of policy easing reflects several factors, including a growing conviction that inflation will fall back by the end of... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC seemingly split on unconventional policy The Czech National Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% today, but the post-meeting press conference provided the clearest signs yet that some policymakers are keen to adopt unconventional policy... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update July’s PMIs point to continued recovery in Central Europe July’s manufacturing PMI surveys suggest that the recovery that started in Poland and the Czech Republic towards the end of the second quarter continued in the first month of the third quarter. Both... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Stimulus plan unlikely to transform Russia’s outlook The stimulus measures agreed by Russia’s cabinet yesterday are unlikely to radically transform the outlook for the economy. We continue to expect a modest recovery over the second half of this year... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets recovering from June’s sell-off Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their losses from the sell-off last month. Looking ahead, we see some scope for gains in the region’s equities and currencies over the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Hungary really turned the corner? Hungary has been buoyed by a raft of good news over the past few months. Q1 GDP data showed that the economy exited recession, the budget deficit has narrowed to the extent that the European... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling There is little evidence in June’s activity data that Russia’s struggling economy is about to turn the corner. All told, it seems that GDP grew by around 1.5-2.0% y/y in the second quarter – broadly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: QE or not QE? The suggestion by some commentators that the new lending facility unveiled by the Central Bank of Russia last week amounts to a form of quantitative easing seems wide of the mark. All the signs so far... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: volatility to remain the order of the day The scale of yesterday’s intervention by the Turkish central bank to defend the lira underlines the vulnerabilities that have built in the country’s economy. We are tweaking some of our forecasts, but... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: FX reserves drop to 6-year low The slump in Ukrainian FX reserves to a six-year low serves as a reminder that Ukraine’s fragile external position continues to keep it one step away from a full-blown balance of payments crisis. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, we now expect rates to be kept on hold until 2015. If anything though, the risks to this forecast lie on the downside. Elsewhere, there are concerns... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
