Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine's move towards Russia There’s a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next in Ukraine following the government’s decision to suspend preparations for an Association Agreement with the EU, apparently under pressure from... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia’s fiscal woes a result of weak growth In spite of mounting speculation that Croatia’s debt burden will force the authorities to turn to the IMF for help, we think that the country might still be able to avoid a bail-out. Even so, these... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes a weak start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing Q3 GDP growth figures, today’s release of activity data for October suggests that the Russian economy made a weak start to Q4 too. Indeed, the only crumb of comfort... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens modestly but more may be needed The Turkish central bank made a small adjustment to its liquidity provision today which should lead to a modest rise in market interest rates. However, there's little more that the MPC can now do to... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Eastern Europe shrugs off euro-zone slowdown Central and South Eastern Europe seems to have shrugged off the slowdown in the euro-zone in the third quarter of this year, with growth accelerating in most countries. The exception was the Czech... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q3 GDP caused by drop in investment The weaker-than-expected 1.2% y/y increase in Russian GDP in Q3 is likely to reinforce concerns that the slump in Emerging Europe’s largest economy over the past year will be longer-lasting than many... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia still happy to bide its time The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept interest rates on hold today and gave little indication that it is about to loosen policy to support the struggling economy. 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank pulls the trigger on unconventional easing Faced with growing concerns about deflation, the Czech National Bank voted to ease monetary policy further today by intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna. Few details were... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s government accepts weaker growth is here to stay The sharp downgrade to the long-run growth forecasts released by Russia’s Economy Ministry earlier today is the clearest signal yet that Moscow believes that economic weakness over the past year has... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank extends “forward guidance” The Polish National Bank extended its version of “forward guidance” today, stating that interest rates will be left on hold until the second half of next year. We think the existence of significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR Governor signals further easing to come in Romania Having lowered interest rates earlier today, Romania’s National Bank Governor, Mugur Isarescu, gave a strong hint that further cuts are likely in the months ahead. This dovish stance has been... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end Hungarian policymakers cut interest rates again today, but there are a whole host of reasons to think that the easing cycle is nearing an end. The economy is recovering and core inflation is rising... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech election uncertainty unlikely to have big economic impact This weekend’s inconclusive Czech legislative election has raised the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty, which many suggest could have a detrimental impact on the economy and the... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
