Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan sacks Agbal, risk of currency crisis grows The shock decision by Turkey’s President Erdogan to sack central bank governor Naci Agbal late on Friday is likely to trigger large falls in the lira when markets open on Monday. It looks like the... 20th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR: a hike and clear signal for aggressive tightening Russia’s central bank (CBR) unexpectedly hiked its key policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% at today’s meeting in response to the recent surge in inflation and the accompanying communications sent a strong... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT overdelivers to reassure investors Turkey’s central bank didn’t disappoint investors, delivering a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike (to 19.00%) today, and we think that it will keep monetary conditions tighter than most... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus developments pushing back the recovery The renewed surge in virus cases and tightening of restrictions across Central Europe will deal a heavy blow to the recovery in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, slow vaccine rollouts mean that... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does Turkey need to do to bring inflation down? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) looks set to hike interest rates further this week, and the experience from other EMs suggests that it will need to keep real interest rates elevated for several years to... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: semiconductor shortages add to H1 headwinds The disruption to auto production caused by semiconductor shortages is yet another reason (alongside tight COVID-19 restrictions) to expect growth in Central and Eastern Europe to struggle in H1 2021. 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP extends pause, policy to stay loose for some time The Polish central bank’s latest forecasts, published this afternoon, tell a story in which the economic recovery will strengthen over the coming years and inflationary pressures will pick up strongly... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the divergence in Central Europe in Q4 The full breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central Europe showed that net trade exerted a drag on growth in Poland while it provided a boost to Czechia and Hungary. But looking ahead, mounting headwinds to... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Robust labour markets bode well for the recovery Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have held up well since the start of the pandemic and we think this will continue over the next few years, which will support recoveries across... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds and steps up its rhetoric on inflation fight Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting and the hawkish tone in the statement, including a commitment to bring inflation back to the 5% target, supports... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy and the impact so far The shift in policymaking at Turkey’s central bank has supported a rally in local financial markets over the past few months and we think this has further to run. We now expect the Turkish lira to end... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CBR closes the door on further easing Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.25% today and the hawkish message about pro-inflationary risks means that there is no room for further easing. The CBR set the... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rate cuts are in view Stubbornly high inflation and concerns about a weaker exchange rate mean that Hungary’s central bank (MNB) will keep its powder dry in the next few months. But we think that inflation will ease over... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Russia The waves of protests that have taken place across Russia in recent weeks pose the biggest challenge to President Putin in close to a decade and have put a risk premium on the ruble. The government is... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT holds fire amid lira rally, faltering economy Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.00% at today’s MPC meeting as concerns about the faltering economic recovery took priority. But the hawkish tone on... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
