Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery We estimate that households in Poland, Czechia and Hungary have accumulated “excess” savings worth 4% of GDP so far during the pandemic and this stockpile looks set to grow further in the coming... 8th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB hints at slower tightening, tapering takes stage Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised its base rate by another 30bp, to 1.50%, as expected today but also dropped its commitment to raise interest rates on a monthly basis which suggests that the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI maintains its dovish tone as outlook dims Israel’s central bank (BoI) sounded more cautious about the outlook at today’s MPC meeting given the rise in virus cases and tightening of containment measures. Provided the third booster jab is... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Booster jabs accelerate as virus cases surge in Israel The spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant has driven a sharp rise in virus cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Israel this month. Evidence of waning vaccine efficacy prompted the... 18th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation likely to remain elevated over the coming months and the economy having bounced back quickly from May’s... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells? The strength of mortgage and unsecured consumer lending in Russia has concerned the central bank and raises the threat of a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, but for now we think these risks are... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB flags faster pace of monetary tightening The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.75% at today’s meeting, and its communications signalled that policymakers will raise rates more quickly than they had... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Is it time to worry about Romania’s current account? The widening of Romania’s current account deficit to a 10-year high partly reflects a rise in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings which is not a concern. But the trade balance has also worsened and the... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB steps up front-loaded tightening cycle The larger-than-expected 30bp interest rate hike by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) today was accompanied by hawkish comments that send a strong message about its intention to bring inflation back to its... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBR hikes rates sharply, but cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger 100bp interest rate hike, to 6.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications provided clear guidance that the tightening cycle is nearing... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far A rise in virus cases in Israel has prompted the government to re-impose restrictions on activity, including mask mandates and vaccine certification for large events. There are signs that the Pfizer... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes Russian inflation shows no sign of letting up and looks set to remain above the central bank’s 4% target until at least the end of next year. With households’ inflation expectations also rising, we... 19th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP in no rush to tighten policy Poland’s central bank left interest rates on hold today and, while it revised up its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, there was little sign in the accompanying press statement that the balance on... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
