Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered In this Update, we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this... 28th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s FX reserves to sanctions? The sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank freeze a significant portion of its foreign currency assets, rendering at least half largely unusable. The sharp tightening of capital controls today... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s banks on the brink The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis. They face both large deposit withdrawals and the prospect of a rise in non-performing loans, which... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of sanctions on Russia The latest Western sanctions on Russia will hit its economy hard through tighter financial conditions and reduced trade, and might plausibly hit GDP by 1-2%-pts. But sanctions stopped short of the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the possible impact of sanctions Russia’s decision to send troops to eastern Ukraine has prompted US sanctions on the two breakaway Ukrainian regions, and Western governments are lining up further measures that would hit Russia... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April The strength of the latest activity, labour market and inflation data prompted a shift in guidance from the Bank of Israel today in which it said that it may start a tightening cycle in the coming... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR steps up the pace of tightening The National Bank of Romania (NBR) accelerated its tightening cycle today with a 50bp hike to its key policy rate (to 2.50%) and, with inflation firmly above the central bank’s target, we think this... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP maintains steady tightening as inflation risks build The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.75%, at today’s meeting and, while there was little change in language in the statement, we think a backdrop of strong... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB signals that tightening cycle is almost done The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the second consecutive month today and the accompanying communications were less hawkish than expected and suggest that there... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
