Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel joins the 50bp rate hike club The Bank of Israel stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 1.25%, as it dropped its commitment to “gradual” interest rate hikes. This suggests that similar moves may... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived if the conflict remains... 30th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB sends a strong message with monster rate hike Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a much larger-than-expected 185bp increase in its base rate, to 7.75%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that... 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: knock knock, anybody there? High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00%... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation broadening out Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a 150bp interest rate cut to 9.50% today as its focus continued to shift away from inflation risks towards supporting the economy. We think further reductions... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds Despite the backdrop of inflation at 70% and the lira falling by falling by 10% against the dollar this month, Turkey’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 14.00% today. So long as President... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on... 23rd May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
