Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech growth to disappoint as eurozone recession hits The very high household saving rate in Czechia and the sharp fall in inflation we expect there this year means there is scope for consumer spending to recover over the coming quarters. But we think... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB getting close to phasing out its stabilisation tools Hungary’s central bank (MNB) reiterated the message that it’s unlikely to cut its base rate anytime soon, when it left that rate on hold again today (at 13.00%). That said, the MNB offered some signs... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage problem Last week’s European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion on Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage dispute dealt yet another blow to Poland’s banking sector and will expose those banks with large FX loan portfolios... 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI sticks to aggressive tightening, cycle still not over The Bank of Israel (BoI) hiked interest rates by another 50bp, to 4.25%, today and while it continued to point to signs of slower growth, it sounded more concerned about the strength of inflation than... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB may pivot soon The hawkish tone struck by the Czech National Bank (CNB) as it left its policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that rates will be cut around the middle of... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic risks of Israel’s new government Concerns over democratic backsliding and an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict associated with Israel’s new far-right government won’t necessarily mean that foreign investment into Israel... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three bits of good news for the CEE inflation outlook Moderating core price pressures, the continued fall in inflation expectations and the sharp decline in wholesale natural gas prices mean we think inflation in Central and Eastern Europe will fall a... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong FDI inflows likely to continue in CEE The surge in FDI inflows to a 15-year high in Central and Eastern Europe last year will partly unwind this year given the weaker global macro backdrop. But we think that a large part of the increase... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
