Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising virus cases not a major threat to the recovery New daily coronavirus cases have hit record highs across Central and Eastern Europe over the past month and authorities have responded by tightening restrictions at a local level. Health systems in... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: bar for policy rate hikes is very high Turkey’s central bank kept its key policy interest rates on hold today and, while the accompanying statement acknowledged growing upside risks to inflation, it looks like that the focus will remain on... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region The escalation of protests in Belarus and calls for EU sanctions pose a major threat to political stability in the country and the economic outlook, but a downturn in Belarus’ economy would have... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks still the weak link Turkey’s banks are more vulnerable now to a sell-off in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions than they were in the run-up to the 2018 currency crisis. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s FX reserves flashing red Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) has burned through its FX reserves to defend the lira this year, but the CBRT’s firepower is severely depleted and reserves are now so dangerously low that monetary... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the falling lira? If strains in Turkey’s balance of payments fail to ease, the central bank will probably tighten monetary conditions more aggressively within the interest rate “corridor”. But use of the corridor alone... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the hit to Turkey’s current account position Turkey’s current account deficit has widened to levels not seen since 2018, which can partly be explained by a slump in tourism receipts. While this should start to reverse over the rest of this year... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further falls lie in store for Turkish lira Today’s depreciation of the Turkish lira marks the first significant departure from the de facto peg that has been in place over the past month and, if tensions with the EU continue to escalate... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead Russia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, today and continued to provide signals that further easing lies in store. But the communications suggest that the pace of easing will slow... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates on hold as inflation concerns grow Turkey’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today and it’s clear from the accompanying statement that inflation concerns are preventing further easing. We think that rates will now be left on... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom Turkey’s credit boom that started towards the end of last year has been turbocharged in recent months and this should provide some welcome support to the economy as it emerges from the coronavirus... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the tourist slump Borders are slowly re-opening across Emerging Europe, but international tourists are unlikely to return to the region in significant numbers for the key summer season. Romania and Russia are the least... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s central bank closes the door on easing cycle Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly left interest rates on hold today and it’s difficult to see how economic conditions will change in such a way over the coming months to justify renewed easing. We... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
