Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The full effects of the plunge in oil prices on the US international trade deficit have yet to be felt, which means that the deficit may soon shrink to a five-year low of around $34bn. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the latest slump in oil prices There is no compelling reason why oil prices cannot fall further in the near term, but the current market panic looks increasingly overdone. Other commodity prices have held up relatively well. We... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The rise in December’s whole economy PMIs suggests that, in spite of the plunge in oil prices at the end of last year, economic activity in the Gulf has held up reasonably well. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack December brings little cheer for producers Commodity prices finished 2014 on a downbeat note as a further sharp drop in the price of oil and the strength of the US dollar continued to weigh on all commodity prices. 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Demographic headwinds are picking up Firms were predicting strong gains in industrial output around the turn of the year despite some weakness in the latest figures on spending and production. But with the labour force now shrinking and... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in oil prices will radically alter global imbalances The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies. At the same time, the US deficit looks... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in US natural gas prices likely to be temporary Despite the recent weather-related fall in the price of US natural gas, we still expect prices to trend upwards over the next few years due to higher demand both at home and from overseas. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets suffer end-year jitters Financial markets across Latin America have come under renewed pressure in the final weeks of this year. Part of the trigger has been renewed falls in oil prices. The currencies of two of the region’s... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
