UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The strength of January’s GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence suggests that consumers’ spirits have been lifted by their stronger purchasing power, partly as a result of the collapse in the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for the dysfunctional aluminium market? The aluminium market remains dysfunctional, as high stocks struggle to find their way onto the market, leading to elevated price premiums. Supply into the physical market should improve this year... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Chile recovered in the fourth quarter of last year. But the bigger picture is that growth over 2014 as a whole was probably just 1.8%, the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s move to curb wheat exports won’t stop prices falling Given ample global wheat supplies we don’t expect Ukraine’s announcement that it will limit wheat exports over the next six months to have much of an impact on the market. We therefore continue to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data show a further surge in US crude oil stocks as traders continue to store oil to take advantage of high futures prices. 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum prices to rise on buoyant jewellery demand The fall in the platinum price in H2 2014 has made the metal look increasingly good value. We expect strong growth in jewellery demand, notably in Asia, the release of some pent-up demand for new cars... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government eases pressure on BoJ to expand stimulus The greater tolerance being shown by Japan’s government towards inflation remaining below target simply reflects the fact that the oil price collapse has made hitting the target all but impossible in... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Outlook for US homebuilding is positive for lumber Stronger economic growth in the US and rising wages should provide a platform for a rebound in the number of housing starts this year, boosting the price of lumber. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Supply to continue to weigh on iron ore prices The latest quarterly production reports by the large iron ore producers demonstrate a continued commitment to ramp up supply, despite the nearly 50% drop in iron ore prices last year. In this Metals &... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand adds to pressure from ample supply The S&P GSCI Agriculture Commodity Price Index has begun 2015 the same way it finished 2014 – on a downward path. The index has fallen 4% since the start of the year, dragged down by a near 10% drop... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
