Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (November) The rise in Turkish inflation to 9.2% y/y in November, which came in spite of the sharp drop in oil prices, underlines the strength of underlying price pressures in the economy. Given this, it’s... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in oil price will provide a net boost to US economy The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More winners than losers from further slump in oil prices The latest slump in the oil price has wreaked havoc on some emerging economies and has taken a toll on the share prices of energy firms. Nonetheless, cheaper oil is still a net positive for global GDP... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will lower oil prices turbocharge the economic recovery? Whilst the recent fall in oil prices seems unlikely to transform the pace of the UK’s economic recovery, it should provide a timely prop at a time when other sources of support appear to be fading. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil leads the way lower The prices of most commodities fell in November, dragged down by the sharp fall in oil prices. However, supply concerns buoyed the prices of some agricultural commodities and industrial metals... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to make of the removal of gold import restrictions The RBI today announced the removal of restrictions on gold imports, and the withdrawal of the “20:80” rule which dictates that 20% of gold imports must be re-exported. There are no further details or... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria forced to hike rates, while SA & Kenya hold fire The slump in the Nigerian naira this month forced the central bank to take drastic action. Interest rates were hiked for the first time in three years and the currency was devalued. But given that the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Policy will trump energy costs in the aluminium sector Aluminium production is a highly energy-intensive process, so shifts in global energy prices can have significant implications for output. That said, we expect government policy in China to be the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
