Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much will lower oil prices drag on other fuel costs? The fall in oil prices is likely to have significant implications for all commodity producers and consumers, not just those in the oil industry. We have explored the impact of falling oil prices on... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Impact of Russian wheat restrictions should be limited As a major exporter of wheat, any measures imposed by Russia to keep more supplies at home arelikely to result in higher global prices, though current market conditions should limit the upside... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Time to turn positive on base metals Somewhat stronger global growth – helped by the recent fall in oil prices – and, in some cases,uncertain supply prospects suggest that base metal prices should rise in 2015. However, we alsoexpect... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should lower oil prices mean for other commodities? The conventional wisdom is that lower oil prices will add to the downward pressure on the prices of other commodities, many of which have indeed weakened. But while this may continue to hold true for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for Dubai’s debts? The recent plunge in Dubai’s stock market, coming alongside a drop in oil prices, has rekindled fears that the Emirate could face renewed problems with its large corporate debts. For our part, we... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs signal demand still weak Continued softness in flash PMIs this month, particularly in China, does not provide hope that commodity prices will benefit from a significant pick-up in demand. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PMIs show global economy ending 2014 on a weaker note Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombia maintained a relatively strong pace of growth in the third quarter, seemingly driven by construction and agriculture. However, given the recent oil price falls, we expect the economy to lose... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
