Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver to out-perform gold as both climb further An environment of rising gold prices and improving sentiment towards the global economy should see the price of silver out-perform its fellow precious metal. We are raising our forecasts for silver... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan) The flash PMIs for China, the euro-zone and Japan all rose in January. Admittedly, the increases were small, but signs of stronger domestic growth in China and a stabilisation in the euro-zone economy... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited demand boost from cheaper oil The plunge in crude oil prices since last summer will reduce the cost of Japan’s energy imports by around 2.5% of GDP in the near term. However, much of the windfall will be saved and the boost to... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Lower oil prices to delay rate hikes, but not in Nigeria The dramatic fall in oil prices pushed inflation down in much of Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of last year, and it is likely to slow further this year. This would lead policymakers in some of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Mine closures to boost lead prices The lead price has mirrored falls in copper in recent months. Whilst demand growth is set to remain unspectacular in 2015, and sentiment may be weak, recent and impending mine closures will provide a... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does QE in the euro-zone mean for commodities? The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide further evidence that traders are stockpiling US crude to take advantage of the difference between low spot prices and higher future ones. 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fall in US oil rigs should lead to a fall in output, just not yet The fall in the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US is the latest sign that firms are beginning to respond to the collapse in oil prices by cutting back on investment. However, we expect US oil... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price on track for $1,400 The continued recovery in the gold price to $1,300 per ounce today means that it has already hit our (relatively bullish) target for the end of this year. Looking ahead, one big unknown is the market... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should rebound in 2015 Recent weakness in US steel prices has mainly been driven by supply-side factors, not least Chinese supplies flooding the world market, as well as lower input prices. Considering the protectionist... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
