Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide the best evidence yet that US oil stocks are at least levelling out and maybe about to start to trend lower. What’s more, the data also showed a further increase in demand and... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How strong is the $1,200 floor for gold? The gold price has closed below $1,200 per ounce, having been above that level the day before, on 15 occasions since January 2011. However, it has never remained below $1,200 for longer than 15 days... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment diverging, but for how long? Over the past month the S&P GSCI agriculture index has continued to fall, weighed down by large declines in the prices of corn and wheat due to improving supply prospects. As a result, the index... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch The “new normal” for Chinese steel There has been much talk about the “new normal” for the Chinese economy, involving slower and more sustainable growth. In this Metals & Mining Watch, we discuss the implications of the “new normal”... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment improves Base metals prices rose strongly this week, in large part owing to renewed investor interest. Data suggesting persistent weakness in China’s economy are fostering hopes of additional stimulus measures... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities lead the pack Some weakness in the US dollar and hope for a delay to the first US interest rate hike helped to support commodity prices in April. Meanwhile, although Chinese economic data showed persistent weakness... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices facing more US dollar headwinds The appreciation of the US dollar since the middle of last year has been a contributing factor in the general decline in agricultural commodity prices. In this Agricultural Commodities Watch we look... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s rollercoaster ride may not be over, yet After sliding to six-year lows earlier in the month, nickel prices have rebounded sharply in the last week to around $13,500 per tonne. Although we are positive on the medium-term outlook, the latest... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Non-OPEC & non-US oil production holding up, for now Oil production outside the US and OPEC has been barely affected by the dramatic slump in prices over the last year. However, the effects of lower oil prices are likely to make themselves felt... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide more evidence that the growth in US oil stocks is starting to slow, although it will still be some time before stocks actually fall. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño set to arrive, but with limited impact An El Niño weather event is looking more likely this year, albeit current expectations are that it will be weak. The risk to supply disruptions and the potential for higher prices should be minimal. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.) The raft of weak activity data for Chile, while disappointing, are unlikely to have prevented a robust expansion of GDP in Q1. We suspect that much of last month’s weakness can be explained by the... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Turning the corner The (largely positive) views set out in our first quarterly of 2015 have mostly been proved right. We continue to believe that this will be a year of recovery for commodity prices as a whole... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
