Commodities Update Soybeans not out of the woods yet The trade talks between the US and China last week ended on a positive note, but the lack of any details dashed hopes of imminent relief for the ailing US soybean sector. Indeed, even if a deal is... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil bucks the negative trend in China’s trade data China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in December. Admittedly, oil imports rose strongly but this was probably opportunistic buying on the back of the slump in price rather than a sign... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG prices to follow coal and oil downwards Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New gold and silver price forecasts We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens. 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update A downward revision to the 2019 oil price forecast Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese imports After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update One small step … China has announced a (small) increase in its reported official sector gold holdings for the first time in over two years, but regardless of whether this is repeated in the near future, central bank... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs dampen any new year optimism Commodity prices are mostly falling on the first day of trading in 2019 as China’s December PMIs showed that the economy finished 2018 on a weak note. While the authorities are loosening policy, we... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2019 Slower global economic growth will prove too much of a headwind for most commodity prices in 2019. What’s more, investor sentiment towards risky assets more generally is likely to deteriorate. These... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The electric vehicles boom won’t boost nickel in 2019 In recent months, the price of nickel has plummeted as investor sentiment has waned on concerns about demand. We think that prices will drop in 2019 as growth in global supply remains strong and... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc futures are right to be in backwardation The price of zinc has fallen sharply since June but what is more remarkable is that the futures curve has shifted into a steep backwardation. We forecast that zinc prices will continue to drop in 2019... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in demand to weigh on oil prices We expect a combination of slower global GDP growth and persistent rises in US shale output to lead to lower oil prices in 2019. Our end-2019 forecast for Brent is now $55 per barrel ($60 previously). 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No respite in sight for plummeting Chinese steel prices Chinese steel prices have slumped recently but with demand set to be weak over the coming months and less stringent pollution controls, we expect steel prices to drop by a further 20% over the next... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium’s golden days may not return The price of palladium rose above that of gold earlier this week for the first time since 2002, but gold has returned to a premium today and we think this premium will grow as the palladium price... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
