Commodities Update High global stocks to weigh on wheat and corn prices Elevated levels of global end-stocks have prompted us to review our price forecasts. We have downgraded our end-2019 corn price forecast but left the price outlook for wheat and soybean unchanged for... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade not all bad news for commodities China’s imports and exports dropped sharply in February. Admittedly, some of the plunge can be explained by the shift in timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, but we expect trade to remain weak in the... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trade deal will not prevent prices falling Industrial metals prices have risen robustly this year, but we think that the rally is running out of steam. Even if a US - China trade agreement is reached, a slowdown in global growth and an... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s unrealistic pledges to import US commodities There has been a surprisingly muted reaction in commodity markets to the latest reports that China and the US are close to a trade deal. We think this reflects a combination of the fact that much of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold still set to shine Despite having risen by over a tenth in the past six months, we believe that the upswing in the gold price has further to run. Our forecast of falling equity prices this year suggests strong demand... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China’s PMI unlikely to last The latest pick-up in the unofficial PMI data does not change our expectation of a slowdown in China’s economy, which underpins our forecast of mostly weaker commodity prices, especially industrial... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG price slump is not all about the weather The plunge in the spot LNG price is in large part the result of a mild northern hemisphere winter. As such, prices may rebound if the weather normalises, but rapid growth in supply will prevent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil price rally to prove fleeting The recent surge in the oil price reflects concerns about a supply shortfall, on the back of sharply lower production in some key OPEC producers. That said, there are already signs that growth in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore price to tumble, but not yet We have revised up our iron ore price forecast following the disaster at the Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine and its aftermath, given the negative implications for supply. However, with demand set to... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on global oil demand Slower economic growth in the two largest oil consumers will weigh on oil demand this year and is a key reason why we expect prices to fall, despite lower supply. Admittedly, China is likely to... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium prices ignore fundamentals The price of palladium has reached another record high today, but we remain of the view that this elevated level is unlikely to last. In fact, it is now clear that supply rose strongly in 2018 which... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s industrial activity data suggest that metals demand held up well in the last quarter of 2018, but we don’t expect this to last in 2019 as a downturn in economic activity will weigh on demand. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown is a headwind for prices The latest weak PMI data underpin our forecast that China’s economy will continue to slow in the coming months, which we think will weigh on the prices of most commodities, but especially the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q4 & 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Gold demand from the official sector soared to its highest level since 1967 last year as central banks became increasingly keen to diversify from dollar assets. But, we expect the big story for 2019... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update European coal prices to remain grounded Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
