Commodities Update Trouble brewing in coffee markets Coffee prices recently reached their lowest levels in around a decade. That said, we suspect that prices are bottoming out and should pick up slightly by the end of this year. But looking beyond 2019... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oversupply plagues the wheat market Persistently high production and stocks have led us to revise down our price forecast for wheat. Indeed, in its first estimate of the 2019/20 season, the USDA expects the market to be in a large... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends While flattered by base effects, a surge in central bank buying and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meant that gold demand grew by a healthy 7% y/y in Q1. While central banks should... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Why lower US natural gas stocks are here to stay US natural gas stocks have remained stubbornly low in recent years. We think that this reflects a new norm in the natural gas market which is eroding the impact of stock levels on prices. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on Pacific coal A stabilisation of economic growth in China should support the price of Pacific coal in 2019, but in the longer term we expect prices to slide as demand softens and supply increases. 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What lacklustre global growth means for commodities We have long expected that sluggish global demand will weigh on commodity prices in 2019. That said, recent indicators have led some to suggest that global growth may be bottoming out. But we disagree... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does oil at $70 mean for our price forecast? Most of the excess supply in the oil market has now disappeared as a result of the voluntary and involuntary output cuts, notably by OPEC member states. However, we expect higher prices to encourage... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
