Energy Update Oil at $85 will prove unsustainable The price of Brent crude nudged $85 per barrel today, reflecting concerns about the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran. However, we remain of the view that supply from other OPEC and non-OPEC... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in China’s PMIs do not bode well for prices The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Alumina prices to tumble Alumina prices have jumped in recent months on supply-side concerns. We think that the current supply disruptions will be resolved and we expect prices to fall by end-2019. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to soften Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to rise in 2019 We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Convergence on the cards At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold/silver price ratio to fall from 23-year high We think the prices of both gold and silver will rise in 2019 but silver looks set to outperform. It will benefit from its higher beta, a recovery in investor interest and a sharp slowdown in mine... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Re-visiting the iron ore forecast Previously volatile iron ore prices have barely moved in the last six months. Despite ample supply, strong growth in China’s steel production supported prices. That said, we expect steel output to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs offer little support to prices China’s PMI readings for August confirm our view that the economy is slowing as a result of subdued domestic demand. Although some policy easing is underway, it will be some time before this... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are Chinese tariffs on US LNG a big deal? It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese government will levy a 25% tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we suspect that any tariff will have only a limited impact on prices... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Surging steel output to lead to lower prices World Steel Association data, released earlier this week, showed a 5.8% y/y increase in global steel output in July, driven by higher production in China, India, the US and the EU. We expect this... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak consumer demand to drag on gold prices The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports dropped on signs that the economy is slowing, while India’s... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Does the Aramco float matter for oil prices? Whether the Saudi Aramco float actually happens or not should make little difference to the oil market. After all, it is now clear that Saudi Arabia is no longer intent on artificially boosting prices... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower supply to support aluminium prices next year After surging to a seven-year high in mid-April on the back of the US Treasury’s decision to impose sanctions on Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, the price of aluminium has since collapsed. While we... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
