Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s May trade data China’s commodity import volumes were subdued last month, which is consistent with our view of soft Chinese domestic demand and downward pressure on commodity prices. Moreover, while there was no... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold has further to rise in 2019 The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand looks weak Subdued survey data suggest that China’s economy is likely to soften this quarter, which underpins our generally bearish view on industrial commodities prices in the coming months. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farm aid could distort production The Trump administration’s latest farm aid package, announced on 23rd May, should provide some short-term relief to the ailing US farming sector. But direct payments to farmers could exacerbate the... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak demand to weigh on steel prices The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) Chinese and Indian gold imports rose sharply in April, in part owing to lower prices. However, our forecast of a rally in the gold price this year suggests that India’s jewellery demand, in particular... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Higher loadings won’t stop palladium prices falling We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
