Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s PMIs China’s November survey data point to persistent weakness in economic activity, which will continue to be a factor weighing on the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin demand battling to soldier on Despite dropping to a multi-year low recently, we think that tin prices will fall further over the next year as Chinese demand falters. However, this should mark a turning point for the tin price, not... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Investors to return to precious metals We think that the prices of precious metals, except palladium, will rise in 2019, in part because we expect an early end to Fed tightening and stronger safe-haven demand in the second half of the year... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil and industrial metals to struggle in 2019 The recent oil price crash has led some to ask if contagion might spread across commodities. However, the decline largely represented a catch-up with base metals and we think the latest drops may... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls too far, too fast Oil prices fell by 7-8% last Friday on market fears of oversupply, but we suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver surplus unlikely to last long The silver market has moved into its first meaningful surplus since 2010 as investor demand has plunged but we expect this will rebound next year, causing the surplus to dwindle and silver prices to... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors are right to be bearish We think that the prices of industrial metals will drop in 2019, in part because we expect investor sentiment to remain weak owing to slower economic growth in China and the US. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s latest activity and investment data paint a mixed picture of metals demand but we expect growth in consumption to slow until mid-2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US energy prices overshoot This week’s dramatic moves in US energy prices reflect underlying fundamentals to some extent. Indeed, we remain positive on the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019, but see little upside for oil... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Divergence in energy prices to continue In light of recent sharp energy price movements, it is worth re-iterating our outlook on prices. We expect that differing projections for demand and supply will prolong the deviation in the price of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead looking for longer-term support A temporary cut in output from Nyrstar’s Port Pirie smelter will not stop lead prices falling further as auto sales are slowing and lead-acid batteries see market share eroded by electric cars. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of our oil price forecast Following the recent 20% slump, the price of oil is now close to our end-year forecast and we expect prices to fall further in 2019 as growth in demand slows and supply remains ample. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update November WASDE was all about China At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appeared bearish for the grains and soybeans markets. However, most of the upward revisions to stocks and supply can be explained by revisions to... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
