Commodities Update Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way) While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and... 11th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Thoughts on the oil market sell-off The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Is gold priced for perfection? With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way... 21st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Sell-off in oil markets has gone too far The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Olympic medals to lose their shine before long The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Europe natural gas price to stay lower than Asia LNG Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon price has further to fall The ~10% fall in EU carbon prices since the end of May has mirrored a similar-sized fall in European natural gas prices, and we forecast both to fall by a further 25-30% by year-end. That said, the... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s metals overcapacity to bear down on prices While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
