Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Update Carbon capture only a stopgap for fossil fuel emissions Carbon capture technologies are often put forward as a solution to lowering emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, but given the high costs involved, their uptake has been slow. This Update addresses... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Signs of a gold bubble in China point to higher volatility The growing use of leverage and futures trading to gain exposure to gold in China suggests that the recent increase in Chinese gold demand is more consistent with a speculative bubble inflating rather... 12th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market implications of US-India rapprochement Warming US-India relations, centred around an agreement for India to purchase less Russian oil, risks tightening the global oil market. However, we aren’t convinced that India will curtail imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Could SPR demand absorb Venezuelan oil imports? The potential for Venezuelan oil to be used, albeit indirectly, to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the coming years gives us even more confidence in our view that a boost to US imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Six key questions about the sell-off in precious metals We recently hosted a Drop-In on the sell-off in gold and other precious metals. This Update answers six key questions on topics such as the role of leverage in driving prices, the macroeconomic and... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The higher gold goes, the harder it could fall It’s notoriously hard to objectively value gold, and it’s plausible that the rapid ascent in gold prices could reflect a paradigm shift in demand. In fact, if gold prices were to follow the trajectory... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How to make sense of the industrial metals rally The mayhem in precious metals markets has captured the majority of headlines, but several industrial metals prices have increased by a lot too. We are sceptical that near-term fundamentals justify... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
