Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo tightens grip on Indonesia’s commodity exports The creation of a state-owned export monopoly may help Indonesia’s government capture a greater share of commodity revenues, but it risks deterring investment, undermining confidence in policymaking... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market is approaching a tipping point A resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz this month, as assumed in our baseline scenario, could limit the extent of inventory draws and lead to prices falling back by end-26. But if the... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US energy majors not itching to ramp up oil production The combination of an increased focus on capital discipline among major oil firms, and a reduction in the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in recent years, will limit the extent and pace of any... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil pivots towards rare earth nationalism A bill approved by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies this week tackles some of the key impediments to (currently minimal) rare earths extraction. However, the bill gives the government significant control... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be... 6th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update China’s green tech exports boosted by Iran conflict China’s green technology exports reached a record high in March on the back of the sharp rise in global fossil fuel prices, and we think that the energy shock will continue to boost foreign demand for... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
