Emerging Europe Economics Update

The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war

The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could...

11th August 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market

If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices...

6th August 2025 · 5 mins read

India Economics Update

Can India wean itself off Russian oil?

India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases...

5th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

What are the next steps for OPEC+?

We suspect that OPEC+ will have to take a break before unwinding the next layer of voluntary cuts or otherwise face a ballooning surplus in the oil market. Our base case is that the group will begin...

4th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

New US tariff regime still not the end of the story

President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest...

1st August 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Gold’s evolving role in asset allocation

One key driver of the rise in gold-backed ETF holdings appears to be increased demand from institutional investment managers. Given the weaker relationship between gold prices and US TIPS yields...

31st July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

How quickly have OPEC+ been increasing output?

Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the...

23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Low EU gas storage levels to push prices up this year

European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh...

15th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia?

In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the...

14th July 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

US copper tariffs mask soft underlying fundamentals

The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back...

9th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

US agriculture to remain resilient in face of headwinds

The combination of exposure to retaliatory tariffs, upward pressure on input costs, and heavy reliance on “unauthorised” labour means that the outlook for the US farming sector is highly uncertain...

9th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the...

24th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz

This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it...

23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices?

Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through...

18th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios

This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is...

18th June 2025 · 7 mins read