Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Commodities news storm – What to make of Tariffs, China, OPEC+ and more 1741878000 Commodities are trading in a hyperkinetic news cycle, with Donald Trump raising tariffs on US allies, China calibrating a response to ever-harsher punitive trade actions and t
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply... 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new... 12th February 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of steel and aluminium tariffs The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Looming supply crunch supports EU carbon prices Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are... 28th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Iron ore to suffer from China’s property weakness Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold over the coming years Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector, would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
