Commodities Update Supply not demand weighing on the copper price We continue to expect the copper price to fall further in the fourth quarter but this forecast is premised on strong supply growth rather than a sharp drop in demand. Indeed, if supply disappoints... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will OPEC respond to falling oil prices? There are several reasons why OPEC members in general – and Saudi Arabia in particular – are likely to be sanguine about the recent slump in the price of oil. Output will therefore continue to respond... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What risks does Ebola pose to commodity markets? Aside from cocoa, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa has not yet had a significant impact on commodity prices. The main reason is that the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong fundamentals will ultimately support palladium prices Palladium prices rose strongly for much of 2014 as rising concerns about supply attracted investor interest. In the last month, however, investors have been selling. In our view, solid demand growth... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to remain less than sweet Like many agricultural commodities, sugar has seen a price rout as earlier concerns over supply have evaporated. Despite the benchmark ISA sugar price being nearly 18% below its 2014 mid-May peak, we... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for platinum prices? Disappointing growth in demand at a time of high stocks is weighing on the price of platinum. Weexpect lower prices to encourage some buying, notably of jewellery, but a sustained recovery is... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How to interpret the weakness in commodity prices The recent slide in the Bloomberg index of spot commodity prices to its lowest level since 2010 has caught the attention of many commentators. But the underlying picture is far more nuanced than the... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities demand unlikely to get a boost anytime soon The increase in the flash PMI for China has helped to assuage fears about a hard landing. However, the index is still low by historical standards and the fall in the euro-zone’s flash PMI highlights... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Indonesia dictate global tin prices? Indonesia appears to be exercising its power as the world’s largest tin exporter, withholding shipments when prices are low. However, with only subdued growth in demand, there is a risk that other... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Zinc losing its zing? Zinc prices have started to fall in recent weeks. Whilst acknowledging that the market was set to tighten in 2015, we had felt the recent rally was premature. However, the scale of mine closures... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Climate change not all bad news for agricultural commodities Rising global temperatures are often assumed to be unambiguously negative for the output of agricultural commodities. However, while there is plenty of debate about the causes and impacts of climate... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a “yes” vote mean for UK oil & gas production? The general economic uncertainty created by a “yes” vote in Scotland’s independence referendum could hamper investment in the oil and gas sector too. Nonetheless, an independent Scottish government... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Expectations for global soybean output get another boost The price of major grains and soybeans are at near five-year lows thanks in part to another large upward revision in the USDA’s expectations for global crop output. However, assuming there is no... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
