Commodities Update Impact of Russian wheat restrictions should be limited As a major exporter of wheat, any measures imposed by Russia to keep more supplies at home arelikely to result in higher global prices, though current market conditions should limit the upside... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Time to turn positive on base metals Somewhat stronger global growth – helped by the recent fall in oil prices – and, in some cases,uncertain supply prospects suggest that base metal prices should rise in 2015. However, we alsoexpect... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should lower oil prices mean for other commodities? The conventional wisdom is that lower oil prices will add to the downward pressure on the prices of other commodities, many of which have indeed weakened. But while this may continue to hold true for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs signal demand still weak Continued softness in flash PMIs this month, particularly in China, does not provide hope that commodity prices will benefit from a significant pick-up in demand. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How low must oil prices fall to choke off shale supply? Although $60 per barrel is a fair long-run estimate, there is no single “magic number” for the oil price below which enough North American production becomes unprofitable for supply cuts to start to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Expectations for world grain & soybean output rise again The outlook for global grain and soybean production has received a further boost, with the USDA upgrading its production estimates for the 2014/15 season. Assuming no severe supply-shocks, we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal market set for short-term recovery The international coal market continues to be oversupplied and demand remains fragile, not least in China. Despite a weak long-term outlook, there are some reasons to be optimistic in the short-term... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports supported by stockbuilding Lower prices encouraged some opportunistic Chinese buying of commodities last month but the likelihood is that, in many cases, stocks were being replenished rather than this being a sign of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of Thai rice stocks to push prices lower The fall in the price of Thai rice since August has coincided with the resumption of sales by the Thai government from its enormous stockpiles. Continued official sales into an already well-supplied... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper demand should benefit from lower oil prices The slump in oil prices has been the catalyst for falls in other commodities, including copper. We think this ignores the very different fundamentals of the two commodities. Moreover, by boosting... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Policy will trump energy costs in the aluminium sector Aluminium production is a highly energy-intensive process, so shifts in global energy prices can have significant implications for output. That said, we expect government policy in China to be the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower oil prices will hit growth of fledgling LNG industry The impact of lower oil prices will be reflected in global oil-indexed gas prices in coming months. This will put pressure on the profitability of upcoming higher-cost LNG projects, most of which are... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese rate cuts to have limited impact on metals demand Industrial metals prices rallied on the news of Chinese interest rate cuts. However, while the central bank’s move suggests the authorities will continue with targeted stimulus measures, the cuts... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
