Commodities Update Faster sales of Thailand’s rice stocks should pull down prices The announcement that the Thai government is planning to clear its rice stockpiles in just two years should put significant downward pressure on rice prices over this time period. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Indian budget likely to be a small positive for gold The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe able to weather any disruption in Russian gas supplies We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is OPEC likely to call an extraordinary meeting? We doubt that there will be an extraordinary meeting of OPEC anytime soon and, even if there is, policy is unlikely to change. The cartel’s current strategy of tolerating price falls to protect market... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today’s February PMI data provide further evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. Fading fears of a “hard landing” should therefore support the prices of industrial commodities, especially... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rebound in Brent fails to lift metals prices Even though industrial metals prices were dragged lower by the fall in the price of oil last year, they have yet to benefit from Brent’s recent recovery. Indeed, the futures curves for most industrial... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Surely aluminium premiums have to fall soon? Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sensitive are gold prices to the Chinese New Year? The demand for gold often follows a seasonal pattern due to the timing of festivals associated with gift-giving, such as the Chinese New Year. But the calendar appears to have little impact on the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas to burn brighter this year A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of record-low dry freight costs The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
