Commodities Update Renewed weakness in gold price has a silver lining Talk of a collapse in the gold price is overblown (or at least out of date). The price of gold has arguably held up rather better in recent weeks than many might have anticipated, given the general... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel sell-off is overdone Nickel prices have been in freefall since mid-2014 as, contrary to consensus expectations, the market has been comfortably supplied and stocks have been rising. We think this situation will prove... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal output will still increase, but at a slower pace The current slump in coal prices is unlikely to lead to a significant fall in coal production over the next year. Instead, output should continue to grow, just at a slower pace than in recent years. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in oil prices not enough to cut output We doubt that the recent fall in oil prices will have a significant impact on oil production over the next few years. The vast majority of global oil production, including US shale oil, is still... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some (very) tentative signs of rebalancing in the steel industry Growth in global steel production, even in China, has started to slow suggesting that the much-needed rationalisation of the sector has begun. However, it is likely to be a slow process. This is one... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee market set to tighten Notwithstanding the possibility of consecutive weather-damaged harvests in Brazil, given the combination of this year’s fall in Brazilian output in advance of an “off” year, and pressure on stocks as... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower fuel subsidies to dampen oil demand growth The recent sharp fall in oil prices should make it easier for governments in developing countries to reduce oil subsidies without dramatically increasing inflation. Meanwhile, a reduction in oil... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor supply prospects should underpin lead prices Lead prices have fallen this year, in large part owing to slower demand growth in emerging economies. However, supply prospects (both mined and refined) are deteriorating and official stocks are low... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls sharper than even we expected We think that the recent sharp falls in oil prices have more to do with increased production than a collapse in global demand. As such prices may rebound a little this year, as the worst fears about... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold as prospects for both improve For the third time since 2013 the price of gold has found decent support at around $1,200 per ounce. That level might be tested again soon, as fears over the global economy fade and the focus returns... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grain and soybeans to push prices lower The outlook for global grain and soybean production received another boost late last week as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) further increased its estimates for the 2014/15 harvest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese domestic demand remains weak The recovery in China’s commodity imports last month was mainly driven by an increase in processing and re-exports, rather than stronger domestic demand. Indeed, the weakness in China’s property... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME warehouse reform no longer so relevant The LME’s warehousing reforms should facilitate access to metal from its warehouses, a factor that was creating artificial tightness in the aluminium market last year. However, the market has moved on... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
