Commodities Update Have grain and soybean prices hit a floor? There is still scope for some small falls in nominal grain prices and larger ones in soybean prices in themedium term, especially if oil prices continue to fall back. Over the longer term we also... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russian ban to put downward pressure on food prices The enactment of import bans by Russia on agricultural commodities from a number of Westerncountries should put downward pressure on international food prices over the next year, withcommodities such... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean imports likely to fall next month China’s imports of key commodities were mixed in July, reflecting opportunisticbuying, the slowdown in the property sector and lower import activity related tofinancing deals. 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in US natural gas prices only temporary Mild summer weather in the US combined with an increase in production has pulled down US naturalgas prices over the last few months. However, we think that in the long term, higher demand from... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to play a larger role in UK energy production The UK government’s announcement that it will open a new round of bidding for fracking licencesunderlines its enthusiasm for developing its shale resources. However, it will be many years if... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs to provide only limited support to commodity prices Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we be worried by the fall in shipping costs? Freight costs, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), have fallen 68% since the beginning of 2014,largely reflecting the oversupply of vessels. However, in our view, the recent falls in the BDI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why tin should be the next metal to stage a price rally Tin prices have barely moved this year, probably because unofficial stocks are being drawn down tomeet demand. However, in our view, there remains a strong case for prices to rally as demand appearsto... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in cotton prices not over yet Extraordinarily high levels of stocks, excessive production and increasing competition from man-madefibres should all put further downward pressure on the price of cotton over the next few years. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the copper price remain on the downside, for now We expect renewed weakness in the copper price later this year as mine supply picks up and Chinese copper imports continue to fall due to waning demand from financing deals. However, we expect prices... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s industrial metals imports likely to fall further China’s imports of key commodities were weak in June reflecting the slowdown in the property sector as well as lower import activity related to financing deals. In our view, these factors are likely... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is Libyan oil output set to rebound? We are cautiously optimistic about the reopening of some Libyan oil fields and ports. Although previous attempts at restarting production have ended in failure, the deal this time around seems like a... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is China’s steel industry set to shrink, at last? The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Zinc price rally is premature That the zinc market will tighten in 2014-15 owing to the closure of some large mines appears inevitable. But, for now, stocks (official and unofficial) are high and while consumption growth appears... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would higher US interest rates mean for commodities? We are forecasting that the Fed will hike US interest rates sooner and raise them further than the markets currently anticipate. A tightening of policy by the world’s most important central bank might... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
