Commodities Update Investors continue to reduce long bets on agriculturals Investor enthusiasm for agricultural commodities waned further over the lastmonth. Indeed, for eight of the commodities we cover and have Commitment ofTraders data, five saw a fall in net-long non... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How do lower rig counts affect oil production? We expect US oil production to peak in the middle of this year as the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells is used up. This should help support oil prices, especially in the US, in the second half... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can commodity prices resist further dollar strength? The prospect of further gains for the US currency remains a major headwind for commodity prices. However, the dollar has already appreciated a long way and, if it continues to climb, much would still... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese stockpiling to support demand We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian export ban After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will platinum prices recover? Concerns about demand coupled with the return of South African production are weighing on platinum prices. However, we think that demand will pick up, particularly in China, and that platinum prices... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Faster sales of Thailand’s rice stocks should pull down prices The announcement that the Thai government is planning to clear its rice stockpiles in just two years should put significant downward pressure on rice prices over this time period. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Indian budget likely to be a small positive for gold The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe able to weather any disruption in Russian gas supplies We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is OPEC likely to call an extraordinary meeting? We doubt that there will be an extraordinary meeting of OPEC anytime soon and, even if there is, policy is unlikely to change. The cartel’s current strategy of tolerating price falls to protect market... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today’s February PMI data provide further evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. Fading fears of a “hard landing” should therefore support the prices of industrial commodities, especially... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
